The 20th of January 2017 will be the end of Barack Obama’s second mandate. The next American presidency, which will take place from 2017 to 2021, will necessarily be assured by a new president.

There is a lot of candidates to the primary but 4 of them are particularly standing out since the opening of the campaigns. This panel of 4 favorite candidates is divided in two parts: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders for the Democrats; Jeb Bush and Donald Trump for the Republicans.

Hillary Clinton, leading the surveys inside of her party, already frequented the White House as the First Lady of the United States during the presidency of her husband, Bill Clinton. The candidate has a great political career. Firstly Senator, then State Secretary in 2008 after her defeat at the primaries against the actual president of the United States.

Clinton who is considered as the future winner of the elections of 2016 should nevertheless not rest on her laurels. First, Barack Obama, who until now was supporting his former rival, changed his position after accusations of public corruption were released.  In fact, Hillary Clinton has been suspected of corruption inside her foundation, putting in danger the security of the country.

Another issue for Hillary Clinton is her status of wife of an ex-president of the United States. The “dynasty” effect is very badly perceived in the American public opinion which could be a problem for her. It could allow the other Democrat candidate to win the primary.

It’s the other candidate, Bernie Sanders, who represents the biggest danger for Clinton in the run for the primary in the Democrat party. Bernie Sanders, former mayor of Burlington, deputy in the House of Representatives, and one of the two senators of the Vermont. Besides being better than Clinton in his economic program, Sanders is also more on the side of the American public opinion.

However, the absence of political support inside of his own party and the little financing for his campaign could penalize him. The reversal of situation of the Clintons may change the results in favor of Sanders. Both announce two very different programs and the public opinion is divided about the potential winner of the elections. If some of them would like Clinton to be the first woman president of the United States, others regret her numerous errors. Moreover, her link with the former Bill Clinton might, instead of giving her benefits, disadvantaged her in the run for the presidency. On another hand, Sanders is appreciated by the public and suggest an economic program in agreement with the will of the Americans. He also admitted wanting to prioritize national policy to foreign policy what should reinforce the opinion the citizens have of him.

For the moment, despite a clear advantage for Clinton, we don’t know yet who will represent the Democrats in the election. So the doubt subsists. We must wait for the results of the primary and the national convention of Democrats who will be held respectively from February, the 1st until mid-June, and around the 25th July which will be decisive for the candidates of the Democratic Party.

On the Republican side, the first place is held by Donald Trump. Even though he never exercised a position within the policy of the State, Trump is currently the candidate who is the most publicized and who collected the most votes in the polls. Deemed to be conservative and ultra-capitalist, his strategy lies primarily in the provocation. In fact, he does not hesitate to make misogynist remarks, and even racist comments.

Although the media are strongly criticizing his words, this excessive media exposure, even if negative, may play in his favor and only participate to create the buzz, sector that he masters very well (Trump is firstly a man of business and a showman).

In second position, there is Jeb Bush. His campaign started very well in July 2015 but crushed a little as he ended with less than 4% of votes at the end of 2015. However, he significantly increased in the last polls (12th of January) where he obtained 10,6% voting intentions.

Bush runs with the same issue as Clinton, as he is son and brother of a former president of the United States. Moreover, his brother is not held in high esteem which his opponents do not forget to remind him. A confrontation Clinton/Bush at the finals is by the way the situation the most feared by the American public opinion.

The second of the Republicans is nevertheless more pragmatic and less radical than his rival. He is also categorized by an “anti-Trump” position who he often defined as “the president of chaos” during the debates opposing the main republican candidates.

The familial argument is not really believable especially since Jeb didn’t go to the same school as his father and his brother. Furthermore, he is clearly trying to difference his politic from the one of G.H. Bush.

There is a lot of concurrence. Even though the confrontation Trump / Clinton seems to be the more plausible, the other candidates still have the possibility to change the results, in particular for Sanders who are winning more and more votes. Therefore, we are far from knowing the name of the 45th of the United States.

Louis La Fay

Nina Bethenod